Bet on the Big Beautiful Bill Passing - Latest Odds

In a crucial move late Saturday, Senate Republicans advanced President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, bringing him closer to his promised "big, beautiful" legislative victory. However, the measure still faces significant challenges before becoming law.

The vote-a-rama is currently ongoing in the Senate, and if it clears that floor it will then return to the House for final approval. 

Trump aims to sign the bill by July 4, and the odds suggest that will occur. 

BetOnline.ag has placed the chances of the BBB passing before the Fourth of July at -300, or 1/3. That number equates to a 75% implied probability.

Senators were prepared to hunker down throughout the night Monday. 

“It’s time to vote,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, as the chamber opened. But later he suggested final action could slip.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the “hardest choices” for Republicans are still to come. Democrats, he said, are bringing “amendment after amendment after amendment to the floor, so Republicans can defend their billionaire tax cuts and so they can try to explain their massive cuts to Medicaid to people back home.”

The day will be pivotal for the Republicans, who have control of Congress and are racing against Trump’s July Fourth deadline to wrap up work. The 940-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” as it’s formally titled, has consumed Congress as its shared priority with the president, with no room politically to fail, even as not all Republicans are on board. 

Will Trump's Big Beautiful Bill Pass by July 4, 2025?

Yes       1/3       (-300)

No        2/1       (+200)